1 Game Profile

1.1 Estimated Outcomes on BGG

This table displays the selected game’s current values on four BGG outcomes (UsersRated, Average, GeekRating, Weight) along with my predictive model(s) estimated values for where these games are likely to end up.

Published	ID	Name	Type	UserRatings	Average	GeekRating	Weight
2021	326998	Judean Hammer	Current	31	7.67	5.53	2.67
			Estimated	100	7.54	5.61	2.54

To see more information about the game on boardgamegeek, click on the game’s ID or Name to go straight to the game’s profile page.

1.2 Game Description

Description
"Judean Hammer" is a fast-playing wargame which depicts tense struggle between the rebel player (The Maccabeans) and the empire player (The Seleucid Greeks) trying to re-assert their control. This two-player wargame plays in about an hour or two, with a lightning fast set-up time. The Greeks start in their unassailable supply centers, controlling Jerusalem, but the Maccabeans can use ambushes to whittle their foe while cutting off the Greek supply. At the heart of the game you strive for control of critical cities in the region, especially Jerusalem, playing cards to move or recruit units or to use a special ability that benefits only your faction. However, there's only one deck, and the more special ability cards you play, the weaker your side becomes in combat — which leaves you to make tough decisions at almost every play: Do you push for an early advantage, capturing critical regions and amassing a victory point advantage? Or do you bide your time, watching your opponent weaken themselves, then strike hard at the end to steal the win? —description from the publisher

1.3 Game Information

Information on the game’s designers, artists, families, mechanics and categories from BGG.

For the full profile of the selected game, click on the links in the table or go to https://boardgamegeek.com/boardgame/326998

1.4 Explaining Predictions

For each of the predictions above, I used models that were trained on historical boardgamegeek data in order to predict the selected game. How did the model(s) arrive at their predictions? The following plot displays Shapley values to indicate what features were most influential for the model’s predictions. Anything in blue increased the model’s predictions, anything in red decreased the model’s predictions.

2 Finding Similar Games

What games are similar to Judean Hammer? I compare the selected game to every other game on boardgamegeek based on its mechanics, playing time, complexity, and game type. The tables below display the games which had the most similar data to Judean Hammer. The reported similarity is the cosine similarity between the selected game and all other games published before 2021.

This similarity score ranges from -1 to 1, where similarity of 1 indicates that games are exactly identical (a game will have a score of 1 with itself).

Note: This analysis does not look at a game’s ratings on BGG, publisher, artist, or designer - it focuses on finding similar games based on how they play, not how they are rated or by their theme.

2.1 Most Similar Games

The table below displays games with the most similar data to Judean Hammer. Click on a game’s ID or Name to go straight to its profile on boardgamegeek.

Rank	Published	ID	Name	Similarity	GeekRating	Average	Weight	UserRatings
--	2021	326998	Judean Hammer	1.00	5.53	7.67	2.54	31
1	2013	38805	Rebel Raiders on the High Seas	0.90	5.65	7.10	2.67	192
2	2017	160234	1750: Britain vs. France	0.89	5.57	6.78	2.14	119
3	2020	203321	This War Without an Enemy	0.88	5.62	7.85	3.50	106
4	1988	7058	Nicaragua!	0.87	5.54	6.47	2.80	96
5	2017	238026	Greater East Asia Co-Prosperity Sphere: War in Asia and the Pacific	0.85	5.59	7.61	2.89	87
6	2009	22604	The Halls of Montezuma	0.85	5.61	6.50	3.14	231
7	2020	206480	Imperial Struggle	0.85	6.79	8.34	3.90	1,680
8	1979	162	The Awful Green Things From Outer Space	0.85	6.07	6.54	1.88	2,590
9	2008	23418	Pursuit of Glory	0.85	6.01	7.92	3.91	510
10	2019	220508	Blue Water Navy: The War at Sea	0.85	5.68	8.44	4.22	161
11	1988	3548	Assault on Hoth: The Empire Strikes Back	0.85	5.81	6.97	2.21	515
12	2015	154098	1914: Germany at War	0.85	5.57	8.09	2.50	63
13	2015	157521	Victory in Europe	0.84	5.61	6.99	3.20	169
14	2019	190462	Triumph of Chaos v.2 (Deluxe Edition)	0.84	5.61	8.40	4.50	93
15	1990	4456	1862	0.84	5.47	4.80	2.30	54
16	2020	279975	An Attrition of Souls	0.84	5.62	7.69	2.35	114
17	2005	12333	Twilight Struggle	0.84	8.11	8.27	3.60	43,899
18	2014	58624	Storm Over Dien Bien Phu	0.84	5.69	7.51	2.58	184
19	1993	3163	Doom of the Eldar	0.84	5.60	6.44	2.42	204
20	2004	10662	Victoria Cross: The Battle of Rorke's Drift	0.83	5.65	7.02	2.38	214
21	1988	2903	The Hunt for Red October	0.83	5.57	5.97	2.46	408
22	1996	234	Hannibal: Rome vs. Carthage	0.83	7.16	7.80	3.45	4,856
23	2018	227460	Hannibal & Hamilcar	0.83	6.68	8.34	3.94	1,388
24	2009	43245	Caesar's Gallic War	0.83	5.59	7.06	2.50	121
25	2018	192637	Blood on the Ohio: Washington's Indian War 1789-1794	0.83	5.53	7.53	3.25	30

Click on the ID or Name for any game to go its profile page on boardgamegeek.

2.2 Most Similar, Highly Rated Games

What games are similar to Judean Hammer while also being highly rated by the boardgamegeek community? In this table I multiply every neighboring game’s similarity score by its GeekRating. The resulting score is an attempt to balance these two quantities.

Rank	Published	ID	Name	Score	Similarity	GeekRating	Average	Weight	UserRatings
--	2021	326998	Judean Hammer	5.53	1.00	5.53	7.67	2.54	31
1	2005	12333	Twilight Struggle	6.78	0.84	8.11	8.27	3.60	43,899
2	1996	234	Hannibal: Rome vs. Carthage	5.95	0.83	7.16	7.80	3.45	4,856
3	2020	206480	Imperial Struggle	5.79	0.85	6.79	8.34	3.90	1,680
4	2012	26997	1989: Dawn of Freedom	5.58	0.83	6.75	7.80	3.29	2,151
5	2018	227460	Hannibal & Hamilcar	5.55	0.83	6.68	8.34	3.94	1,388
6	1979	162	The Awful Green Things From Outer Space	5.16	0.85	6.07	6.54	1.88	2,590
7	2003	6205	Europe Engulfed: WWII European Theatre Block Game	5.15	0.82	6.26	7.47	3.77	1,283
8	2010	38996	Washington's War	5.14	0.76	6.74	7.63	2.85	2,474
9	2015	130960	Triumph & Tragedy: European Balance of Power 1936-1945	5.14	0.75	6.85	8.15	3.35	1,974
10	2008	23418	Pursuit of Glory	5.10	0.85	6.01	7.92	3.91	510
11	2013	38805	Rebel Raiders on the High Seas	5.07	0.90	5.65	7.10	2.67	192
12	2019	249590	Nevsky: Teutons and Rus in Collision 1240-1242	4.96	0.81	6.10	8.26	3.90	537
13	2020	203321	This War Without an Enemy	4.95	0.88	5.62	7.85	3.50	106
14	2017	160234	1750: Britain vs. France	4.94	0.89	5.57	6.78	2.14	119
15	1988	3548	Assault on Hoth: The Empire Strikes Back	4.92	0.85	5.81	6.97	2.21	515
16	2004	7480	Sword of Rome	4.88	0.77	6.37	7.34	3.33	1,600
17	1974	987	Kingmaker	4.83	0.80	6.07	6.52	3.07	2,940
18	2019	220508	Blue Water Navy: The War at Sea	4.82	0.85	5.68	8.44	4.22	161
19	1988	7058	Nicaragua!	4.81	0.87	5.54	6.47	2.80	96
20	2004	3870	7 Ages	4.79	0.79	6.05	7.08	3.94	1,030
21	2007	31291	España 1936	4.78	0.80	5.98	7.27	2.82	705
22	2009	22604	The Halls of Montezuma	4.78	0.85	5.61	6.50	3.14	231
23	1979	1717	Freedom in the Galaxy: The Star Rebellions, 5764 AD	4.78	0.82	5.81	6.73	3.96	678
24	2017	238026	Greater East Asia Co-Prosperity Sphere: War in Asia and the Pacific	4.78	0.85	5.59	7.61	2.89	87
25	2014	58624	Storm Over Dien Bien Phu	4.75	0.84	5.69	7.51	2.58	184

2.3 Why Are Games Considered Similar?

I first ran a dimension reduction method (PCA) to identify the main points of variation for games on BGG. The first 25 components explained roughly 50% of the overall variation in the dataset, so I computed the cosine similarity between every game’s score on these 25 components.

2.3.1 Plotting All Games

The following plot shows every game on BGG plotted on the first two principal components of variation. I then highlight where the selected game and its nearest neighbors fall on these first two components.

2.3.2 Game Profiles

Similarity scores are based on 25 principal components - the next table displays the selected game and its neighbors profiles on each of these components.

2.3.3 Examining Components

What are these components? The following plot shows which features contribute the most to each component.

Published	ID	Name	Publisher(s)	Designer(s)	Artist(s)	Categories	Families	Mechanics
2021	326998	Judean Hammer	Catastrophe Games	Robin David	Ilya Kudriashov	Ancient	Country: Israel	Area Movement
						Wargame	History: Wars of the Diadochi and Syrian Wars	Dice Rolling
							Ancient: Greece	Events
							Components: Map (Continental / National scale)	Simulation
							Crowdfunding: Kickstarter
							Players: Two Players Only Wargames

Individual Game Analysis